Most people think watch prices follow Bitcoin.
That's not how this market works.
I operate in this market every day, and I watch transaction data the way traders watch charts. What that data shows over the past five years is a shift in who's actually buying, not a price correlation.
Once you understand that, the market becomes clearer.
2017 to 2020: Before the Correlation Emerged
Crypto money was entering the watch market long before COVID. Bitcoin hit $20,000 in December 2017, crashed below $4,000 in 2018, and some of that early cycle wealth found its way into watches.
But the secondary market was still collector-driven. Rolex premiums were modest. Patek Philippe Nautilus references were accessible. Supply and demand functioned the way they were supposed to.
This is the baseline of what the market looks like when the core buyers are collectors, not capital allocators sitting on unrealized gains.
2020 to 2022: The Everything Bubble
COVID changed the math. Central banks injected record liquidity. Bitcoin ran from $10,000 in mid-2020 to $69,000 by November 2021. Ethereum followed. NFTs traded at prices that would have been fiction eighteen months earlier (and later).
Crypto profits had to go somewhere and luxury watches absorbed a meaningful share of it.
Analysts at Jefferies estimated that 25–30% of high-end US watch sales in 2021 came directly from crypto wealth. That is not a rounding error.
What followed was a supply-demand distortion. Rolex waitlists stretched to years. The Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711 was discontinued. The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak became near-impossible at retail. Secondary prices on the most desirable references hit two to three times retail.
The people driving secondary market prices in 2021 were capital allocators who had recently become very wealthy and needed somewhere to deploy gains.
2022: The Correlation Breaks the Other Direction
Bitcoin peaked in November 2021. By June 2022 it had fallen to around $17,500. A 75% drawdown.
Watch prices peaked in March 2022, four months after Bitcoin. This lag was behavioral. Wealth destruction at that scale takes time for reality to hit, liquidity to tighten, and sellers to show up.
When they did, they showed up in volume. Some platforms reported trading activity up 50% in the first half of 2022, but this was based on more listings, not more buyers.
Secondary prices on references like the Daytona and Nautilus 5711 started softening. Inventory was building.
By late 2022, when the FTX collapse pushed Bitcoin below $16,000, the secondary watch market was already correcting. This accelerated it.
2023: The Decoupling
By April 2023 Bitcoin was back above $30,000. By the second half of the year, ETF anticipation pushed prices higher. Pre-owned watch prices kept dropping.
The correlation was broken.
The WatchCharts Luxury Index continued declining even as crypto gained. By early 2024, Bitcoin was approaching prior all-time highs while the watch market was still down 20–25% from its March 2022 peak.
Two things were responsible for this.
First, the market had a structural overhang. The opportunists who flooded in during 2020 and 2021 were unwinding inventory. Supply remained elevated well above pre-pandemic levels regardless of what crypto was doing.
Second, the nature of crypto wealth changed. The January 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs brought institutional capital into the market at scale. By 2024, roughly 47 percent of traditional hedge funds had exposure to digital assets, up from 21 percent in 2021.
Institutional capital does not buy Rolex Daytonas. It rotates into financial instruments.
The crypto buyer of 2021 was a newly minted retail millionaire spending on status. The crypto buyer of 2024 was a pension fund running an allocation. Those are not the same customer.
2024: The Floor Builds
The secondary market spent most of 2024 searching for a bottom. Chrono24 data showed prices down roughly 25% from the April 2022 peak by October. The ChronoPulse Watch Index, which tracks transaction data rather than listings, recorded a full-year gain of just 0.35%.
After two years of correction, forced selling faded. Inventory cleared and sellers became less willing to cut further.
The market was exhausted.
Bitcoin hit $108,000 in December 2024 following renewed regulatory optimism. Many expected that wave of crypto wealth to flow back into watches.
It didn't, at least immediately.
2025: Divergence Becomes the Norm
By early 2026, secondary watch prices tracked by WatchCharts had risen roughly 4% over the prior six months. Bitcoin over that same period had fallen approximately 25%. The CoinDesk 20 index was down more than 30%.
Two assets that once moved together were now diverging.
The recovery in watches is narrow. Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet are leading it. Brands without real pricing power remain well below their 2022 peaks.
Retail prices have increased roughly 7% globally since early 2025, establishing a new floor. Rolex's CPO program has attempted to add stability at the top of the pre-owned market.
Meanwhile, capital shifted toward scarce physical assets. Gold started surging, and other hard assets have followed. Watches increasingly sit in that same category for serious collectors.
What the Data Says for Buyers Today
The correlation is real, but it is not mechanical.
Bitcoin going up does not mean watch prices automatically go up. What matters is who holds the wealth when it does, and where they are spending it.
The structural reality in early 2026 is this:
Top-tier secondary prices have stabilized and forced selling has stopped. Speculative premiums are no longer the norm. What remains is pricing closer to fundamental value seen in 2019.
If you are allocating serious capital into watches today, you are buying into a market that has already flushed it out.
For sellers holding mid-tier references bought at 2021 peak prices, the truth is hard. That premium is not coming back anytime soon.
People who bought the top said the market was crashing.
It was a correction, and a much needed one.
What Comes Next
The next signal will come from the benefactors of upcoming wealth distribution. The question is not whether Bitcoin is at $80,000 or $120,000. The question is whether the demographic holding crypto wealth is liquid, confident, and ready to spend.
I assess the secondary market will see a meaningful crypto-driven demand wave between late mid-2026 and early 2027.
But it will look different.
The next wave concentrates in proven, scarce references. Patek complications. Rolex precious metal. Independent watchmakers with real production limits.
The Infrastructure Shift
In 2021, converting crypto gains into a watch was slow and fragmented. Buyers had to exit positions, move funds into banks, clear wires, and coordinate with dealers operating on traditional rails. For this reason, I avoided accepting crypto altogether. That friction is disappearing.
Platforms like KettlePay are changing how crypto wealth moves into physical assets. Buyers can pay directly from a wallet. Funds convert instantly into USD. Sellers receive fiat without exposure to volatility.
This is the start of transaction infrastructure that will support deals in the millions.
The bottleneck was never demand. It was always the friction of adoption and risk of scams.
That gap is closing.
As the rails improve, the velocity of capital will increase across the pre-owned market.
What I'm Watching Now
The floor has found footing, speculation is fading, and the references that hold real value are already moving.
What I'm watching now isn't the stability of the secondary market. It's the infrastructure being built around it. Crypto payment rails, settlement platforms, and real-world asset liquidity. Modern fintech capability will make the next wave of capital conversion faster and cleaner than ever.
When legitimate infrastructure is built, transactions will happen and capital will move. That's inevitable.
The only question is who's positioned before it does.
— Christian Bruhn